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China's economy under the new normal

Time:2015-12-28The Article Source:Viewed:751

2015, the "Twelfth Five Year Plan" last year. Under the new normal Chinese economy, from the old and new power conversion, to curb systemic financial risk; from the deepening of reform measures to the floor, and then to the internationalization of the RMB key breakthrough...... Challenge, there are risks, but more development and progress.
It is the end of the year. Inventory in the past, China's economy remained stable overall, the good trend has not changed; looking forward to the future, China's economic operation of the new phenomenon, new trends continue to show, these bright spot is and will be long-term good China economic development.

One
Maintain high speed in economic growth
"Economic growth is expected around 7%, taking into account the needs and potential, and the overall completion of the social objectives of the convergence, and the total economic expansion and structural upgrading of the requirements to adapt to the development of the law, in line with the objective reality. To maintain a longer period of time to develop, to achieve the material foundation of modernization will be more abundant." At the three session of the twelve National People's Congress in March, Premier Li Keqiang described the growth target of China's economy in 2015. Today, this goal can be described as the overall situation has been set".
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National Bureau of statistics data show that in the first three quarters of 2015, China's GDP of 487774 yuan, according to comparable prices, an increase of 6.9%. Quarterly view, the first quarter grew by two in the 7% quarter, an increase of three in the 7% quarter, an increase of 6.9%. And according to the law of the past economic operation, the Chinese economy to achieve about 7% of the rapid growth has no suspense.
Li Daokui, director of the China and the world economic research center at Tsinghua University, argues that there is an important indicator of whether an economy is growing, and an important indicator of the gap between the economy and the world's leading economies. According to purchasing power parity calculations, China's per capita GDP is still only 20% of the level of the United states. He said, when Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the per capita GDP reached 20% of the United States, the next 10 - 15 years, their average growth rate remained at 7%, so there is reason to believe that China's economy still has great potential.
Two
Interest rate market is basically completed
March 1st, the upper limit of the deposit interest rate floating range by the deposit benchmark interest rate adjustment is 1.2 times; in May 11th, the upper limit of the floating range from 1.3 times to 1.5 times; in August 26th, 1 years above the floating ceiling of interest rate floating ceiling; October 24th, the central bank announced on commercial banks and rural cooperative financial institutions and other not set up a floating ceiling. So far, the basic completion of the reform of interest rate market for nearly 20 years.
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What is the significance of the interest rate market? Popularly speaking, is people go to the bank to save money, will not face a thousand lines of the situation, the banks will be based on their own business and business levels, in accordance with the market competition, to draw the deposit return to attract deposits. When the enterprise to borrow money from the bank, the borrowing costs will also be determined by the supply and demand of the financial market and the enterprise's own credit status. And the market is not equal to the absence of supervision.
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Ceng Gang, director of the Institute of Finance Bank, said that if some banks in order to get more deposits, given high deposit rates, the central bank may pass through the reserve ratio, the reserve ratio is high, reducing the size of the loan, increase the cost of its assets, prompting its reasonable pricing.
Three
Free trade circle of friends
June 1st, both South Korea and China signed the "people's Republic of China government and the government of the Republic of Korea Free Trade Agreement"; in June 17th, China and Australia signed the "people's Republic of China government and the Australian government free trade agreement"; in November 22nd, the China ASEAN Free Trade zone to sign the results of the negotiations. China and South Korea, China Australia FTA in December 20th officially entered into force and the first tax cut.
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Since the entry into force of the trade agreement, the future of China's consumers buy cosmetics, snacks, clothing, pickles and other goods will not have to go abroad, scouring the sea, you can buy as much as the same as domestic goods, to buy cheap and good quality of South korea. Since the trade agreement is more convenient, more business opportunities. For example, in accordance with China Australia Free Trade Agreement, Australia's tariff on China related manufacturing products will be reduced to zero in 10 years, which will effectively reduce the cost of Chinese products, so that China made in the Australian market more competitive. At the same time, Australia's high quality milk powder, mineral, lobster, wine, etc., is also expected in China's huge market to obtain a higher share.
The world economic recovery is weak, the free trade is particularly valuable. Experts said that China in free trade agreement on the breakthrough, to form a free trade network is composed of a plurality of free trade agreements between China and ASEAN countries, Australia, Chile, New Zealand, Republic of Korea, not only will play a "stepping stone" in the Asia Pacific in the process of integration with, will also promote the global flow of goods and factors the.
Four
Curb systemic financial risks
In June 5th, Shanghai station on the 5000 point mark. However, a few days later, A stock market will usher in a rare and continuous market fell sharply, the Shanghai Composite Index from the highest point in June 12th 5178.19 dropping to 2850.71 points, the liquidity crisis often appear on the market". Abnormal situation occurs, the State Council issued a series of targeted measures to rectify.
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July 2nd, the securities and Futures Commission decided to organize the inspection of law enforcement forces on the alleged market manipulation behavior verification; July 5th, IPO is officially suspended, the Commission jointly with the public security organs and media network authorities to combat the stock market rumors, in August 3rd, China's Financial Futures Exchange began to investigate and deal with abnormal trading behavior, in August 21st, the Commission announced a number of violations of the law to reduce the behavior of the latest results......
Pointed out that the British "Financial Times" evaluation, global monetary policy easing, U.S. interest rate hike is expected to strongly back in Europe, Greece increased risk of emerging economies, growth factors and difficult Chinese own financial reform, so that the stock market has a certain inevitability. In view of the economic environment at home and abroad Chinese government campaigns to stabilize the stock market as behoove, this is not sufficient to curb the "Domino effect".
Five
SOE reform ushered in the top-level design
September 13th, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council officially released the guiding opinions on deepening the reform of state-owned enterprises, and has long plagued China's economic problems of state-owned enterprises has finally ushered in a special top-level design".
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In view of the new period of China's state-owned enterprise management of the outstanding issues, the "opinions" from the overall requirements, classification of state-owned enterprises reform, improve the modern enterprise system, improve the state-owned assets management system, the development of mixed ownership economy and other 5 aspects of 30 specific guidance. People at home and abroad are concerned about the hot spots, can be found in the opinion of the answer.
Agence France Presse quoted a report ANZ bank said that a new round of reform of state-owned enterprises will affect the Chinese economy, by encouraging private enterprise development and allow the free development of the market for the rational allocation of resources to play a decisive role, at the same time to release immeasurable economic benefits. The United States "newspaper" believes that the core of the current round of reform includes not only the internal reform of state-owned enterprises, more important is the reform of state-owned assets management system. At present, the reform of the top-level design and coordination capacity is stronger than ever, the intensity and breadth of subsequent reform is worth looking forward to.
Six
Five development ideas
October 26th to 29, Fifth Plenary Session of the eighteen meeting held in Beijing, the research on the development of five year plan for economic and social development of the thirteenth proposals, and aiming at the problems faced during the period of China economic transformation, put forward the "innovation, harmony, green, open, sharing the five important development concept.
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Five development ideas, not only in line with the law of China's economic development, but also reflects the consensus of the whole Chinese community. The plenum of the implementation of a number of major scientific and technological projects, the establishment of a number of major innovations in the field of national laboratories, which means that China will have plans to increase investment in science and technology, to provide a strong technical support for the economic transformation and upgrading, the implementation of landscape and ecological protection and rehabilitation projects in the next 5 years, China's efforts to repair damaged ecological environment, the full implementation of a couple can have two children policy, the future of China's population structure optimization.
In the opinion of the CPC Central Party School professor Xin Ming, is the development of the concept of the five plenary session of the highlights, show that the development of contemporary China society, has entered a new historical stage, also shows that with the Chinese economy to a new level, some of the past pattern of development has been more and more awesome "". He believes that in the Chinese economy into the new normal background, we need to construct a new strategy, innovation and development concept of the strategic construction is made on the fifth plenary session.
Seven
"Supply side reform" put forward
November 10th, general secretary Xi Jinping presided over the eleventh meeting of the central financial leading group first proposed, at the same time to expand the total demand, focus on strengthening the supply side structural reforms, efforts to improve the quality and efficiency of the supply system, and enhance economic growth momentum, pushing the overall level of social productivity in china.
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Compared with the traditional macroeconomic regulation and control of the "demand side" management mode, the supply side reforms mainly through decentralization, deregulation, financial reform, the reform of state-owned enterprises, land reform and other means, so that labor, land, capital, innovation and other elements to achieve the optimal allocation, by increasing the total factor productivity to promote economic growth.
There are also many examples of life. For example, in the "double eleven Shopping Festival in Japan, Korean beauty, diapers, America nuts, Holland shaver, Australian milk powder is the most popular sea Amoy commodity. This aspect reflects the convenience of international trade to people's life, but on the other hand, it also reflects the domestic supply of goods can not fully meet the needs of people's consumption.
Renmin University of China National Development Strategy Institute executive president Liu Yuanchun expected future reform will focus mainly on three aspects: one is to reduce the stock of resistance, especially the effect of high debt zombie companies, enterprises; two is the government decentralization and functional reconstruction, some places to a wide range of deregulation, but other areas need to strengthen three is the supervision; trade-off between the markets and the government.
Eight
Successful yuan into the basket"
December 1st, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) officially announced the inclusion of the RMB into its special drawing rights (SDR) currency basket, the new SDR basket will take effect in October 1, 2016. According to the decision of the board of IMF, the weight of the RMB in the SDR basket will reach 10.92%, the other currencies accounted for in the order: USD 41.73%, euro 30.93%, 8.33% yen, 8.09% pounds. In the future, the RMB will become the third largest reserve currency after the dollar, the euro SDR.
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Wide currency, power to the natural. In fact, before joining the SDR, the RMB is already the world's second largest trading financing currency, fifth widely used international payment currency, the seventh largest reserve currency. While the bank's annual reserve asset management survey also showed that more than 70% of the respondents said they have or in the consideration of investment in RMB assets, 18% of respondents said they will increase their holdings of assets.
Wang Tao, chief economist at UBS, said the Chinese yuan to join SDR both shows that the international community for China's economic integration into the world economy, but also for the yuan can be widely used in the status of recognition, which will increase the number of other central banks and sovereign wealth funds to hold more people's money. Joining SDR is an important milestone in the internationalization of RMB, and RMB internationalization will also be a catalyst for promoting China's overall economic reform and opening up.
Nine
Asian investment bank to complete the preparation
June 29th, "the Asian infrastructure investment bank agreement" signed in Beijing, according to the relevant regulations set up by the relevant regulations, the sub investment bank to obtain the approval of the 10 members of the association of national law, and the 10 member countries in the investment of the capital of the shares of the total capital of more than 50%, can be opened. A few days ago, Chen Huan, deputy head of the preparatory group for the investment bank said, the end of 12 sub investment bank to meet the opening conditions set up in accordance with the regulations, opening ceremony is expected to be held in mid January 2016.
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Asian investment bank in the early days of the opening will be based on the field of traditional infrastructure, promote interoperability of member countries, and strive to achieve economic growth and increase employment. Specifically, the initial investment projects will focus on the initial investment in energy, transportation, urban development, rural development, logistics and other 5 areas, and then will continue to extend the project to the field of education, health and other social infrastructure.
Asian investment bank elect governor Jin Liqun said, after the opening of the first projects, Asian banks will try to offer some Asian countries in urgent need of the project, such as power generation, power transmission, highway, railway, water supply and city construction. The future of Asian investment bank sources of funds is mainly divided into two blocks, one is the bank's own funds, on the other hand can also use the bank's own capital leveraging other social organizations funds.
Ten
New and old kinetic energy conversion
In December 12th, the National Bureau of statistics released the latest economic data. November, China's high tech industry increased by 10.3%, the growth rate is higher than the size of 4.1 percentage points higher than the scale, high technology service industry and manufacturing real use of foreign investment grew by 51.7% and 11.7%. And this is undoubtedly the latest performance of China's new economy booming.
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From "on vigorously promote public entrepreneurship peoples innovation some policies and measures to eliminate a number of opinions", occupation qualification licensing and approval, and then to dozens of new "Internet + booster"...... The policy of "air" under the new economic growing body China.
Paris bank analysis, although some of the traditional economic sectors in China appear to adjust, but the Chinese electricity suppliers sales revenue is growing at an annual rate of more than 50%, the movie box office revenue is more than 40% annual growth rate, new business and cultural industry rapid development.
The British economy Sicuite investment consulting agencies founder Smith believes that the fate and the manufacturing service industry is closely related with the "Internet +", "Chinese manufacturing 2025" planning and promote the implementation of the "old economy", China departments can Phoenix Nirvana, timeless, and the birth of more production and service enterprises, to inject new the economic power China.

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